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Chesterfield vs York — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
14:00
York
York
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7SMH Group Stadium
Big match
48%
Chesterfield
model favours
48%26%27%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chesterfield48%
×Draw26%
York27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.52
York
1.07

Chesterfield creates 42% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.64
York
1.13

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.01
York
1.40

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
73%
Chesterfield or York
74%
Draw or York
52%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
24%
York wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
78%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
45%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
20%
York 1+ goals
66%
York 2+ goals
29%
York 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
64%
York (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.01 · 72 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.64 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

York attack 1.13 + Chesterfield defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chesterfield scores more
48%
level
26%
York scores more
27%

Chesterfield at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches
  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chesterfield host York

September 19, 2026: Chesterfield take on York in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chesterfield host York at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.