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Chesterfield vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
14:00
Walsall
Walsall
4/3/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 39SMH Group Stadium
Big match
42%
Walsall
model favours
34%24%42%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Chesterfield34%
×Draw24%
Walsall42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.43
Walsall
1.60

Walsall creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.57
Walsall
1.85

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.34
Walsall
1.29

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less
Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
58%
Chesterfield or Walsall
76%
Draw or Walsall
66%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
16%
Walsall wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
76%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
42%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
17%
Walsall 1+ goals
80%
Walsall 2+ goals
47%
Walsall 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
45%
Walsall (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Walsall attack 1.85 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chesterfield scores more
34%
level
24%
Walsall scores more
42%

Walsall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Chesterfield play Possession-dominant, Walsall Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
60%PossessionBiggest gap44%
78%Pass accuracy64%
12.2Shots12.1
1.38xG1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldWalsall

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

0
Chesterfield
2
Draws
4
Walsall
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 67%
2–20–11–20–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chesterfield face Walsall (League Two)

League Two returns with Chesterfield hosting Walsall. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chesterfield host Walsall at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.