Chesterfield 2–2 Walsall: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Walsall

D. Markanday 67'

D. Oldaker 45+1'

N. Lowe 46', 33'

10/5/2024

League Two · Round 10SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Chesterfield34%

×Draw24%

Walsall42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.60

Chesterfield

1.43

Walsall

1.60

Walsall creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.57

creates per match

1.85

1.34

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.57

Walsall

1.85

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.34

Walsall

1.29

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less

Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

58%

Chesterfield or Walsall

76%

Draw or Walsall

66%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

16%

Walsall wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

76%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

42%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

17%

Walsall 1+ goals

80%

Walsall 2+ goals

47%

Walsall 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

45%

Walsall (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Walsall attack 1.85 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chesterfield scores more

34%

level

24%

Walsall scores more

42%

Walsall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Lowe

Walsall · F

8.6

Match Events

33'

N. Lowe

45+1'

D. Oldaker↳ T. Naylor

46'

N. Lowe↳ L. Gordon

63'

R. Colclough← L. Mandeville

64'

J. Berry-McNally← H. Araujo

64'

P. Madden← W. Grigg

64'

J. Metcalfe← D. Oldaker

67'

70'

82'

82'

88'

V. Campbell← D. Markanday

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldWalsall

Overview

70%Possession30%

11Total Shots17

1Corners7

5Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots17

2On Target5

3Off Target7

6Blocked5

3Inside Box12

8Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

564Total Passes231

467Accurate Passes141

83%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

5Fouls11

1Offsides4