Chesterfield 4–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Morecambe

T. Naylor 80'

M. Olakigbe 75'

A. Palmer 61'

W. Grigg 45+1'

J. Slew 59'

4/26/2025

League Two · Round 45SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Chesterfield51%

×Draw24%

Morecambe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.09

Chesterfield

1.69

Morecambe

1.09

Chesterfield creates 55% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 93 away

1.64

creates per match

1.17

1.01

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.64

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.01

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

75%

Chesterfield or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

49%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

28%

Morecambe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

82%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

50%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

24%

Morecambe 1+ goals

66%

Morecambe 2+ goals

30%

Morecambe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

68%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.01 · 72 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.64 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Chesterfield defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chesterfield scores more

51%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

25%

Chesterfield at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Palmer

Chesterfield · D

9.3

Match Events

17'

Kyle McFadzean

32'

M. Jacobs← J. Metcalfe

45+1'

W. Grigg

46'

D. Oldaker← K. McFadzean

46'

J. Slew← B. Tollitt

46'

H. Hope← L. Angol

56'

Max Taylor

59'

J. Slew↳ D. Tutonda

61'

A. Palmer↳ L. Mandeville

63'

R. Colclough← D. Duffy

63'

A. Pepple← W. Grigg

69'

P. Lewis← Y. Songoo

75'

M. Olakigbe↳ R. Colclough

77'

J. Grimes← L. Gordon

80'

Jamie Stott

80'

T. Naylor↳ A. Palmer

83'

A. Fairclough← C. Cooke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldMorecambe

Overview

65%Possession35%

19Total Shots7

8Corners1

11Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots7

10On Target2

6Off Target3

3Blocked2

14Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

636Total Passes338

571Accurate Passes268

90%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2