Chesterfield 1–1 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Harrogate Town

L. Bonis 12'

T. Brenan 84'

2/14/2026

League Two · Round 32SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Chesterfield58%

×Draw21%

Harrogate Town21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.19

Chesterfield

2.08

Harrogate Town

1.19

Chesterfield creates 75% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

1.03

1.34

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.57

Harrogate Town

1.03

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.34

Harrogate Town

2.59

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less

Harrogate Town-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

79%

Chesterfield or Harrogate Town

79%

Draw or Harrogate Town

42%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

35%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

87%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

61%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

34%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

70%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

33%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

73%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.59 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Harrogate Town defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.08

Harrogate Town attack 1.03 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chesterfield scores more

58%

level

21%

Harrogate Town scores more

21%

Chesterfield at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

D. Markanday

Chesterfield · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

L. Bonis↳ L. Mandeville

24'

A. O'Connor← L. Gibson

46'

57'

59'

59'

66'

70'

J. Donacien← L. Mandeville

70'

R. Stirk← T. Pearce

70'

F. Ladapo← D. Markanday

74'

J. Muldoon← J. Slater

82'

G. Thomson← R. Smith

84'

T. Brenan↳ J. Muldoon

85'

A. Dobra← T. Naylor

86'

Tobias Brenan

89'

Jack Muldoon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldHarrogate

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots11

2.73Expected Goals (xG)1.03

3Corners6

3Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target4

3Off Target3

8Blocked4

13Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

414Total Passes489

302Accurate Passes388

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

3Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2