Chesterfield 2–1 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Grimsby

D. Markanday 45+2'

J. Berry-McNally 28'

C. Vernam 50'

9/7/2024

League Two · Round 5SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield35%

×Draw25%

Grimsby40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.50

Chesterfield

1.40

Grimsby

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.69

creates per match

1.62

1.38

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.69

Grimsby

1.62

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.38

Grimsby

1.11

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less

Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

60%

Chesterfield or Grimsby

75%

Draw or Grimsby

65%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

16%

Grimsby wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

75%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

41%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

17%

Grimsby 1+ goals

78%

Grimsby 2+ goals

44%

Grimsby 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

47%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.40

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chesterfield scores more

35%

level

25%

Grimsby scores more

40%

Grimsby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Berry-McNally

Chesterfield · M

8.0

Match Events

24'

26'

28'

39'

45+2'

50'

58'

62'

67'

67'

70'

J. Metcalfe← O. Banks

71'

L. Mandeville← J. Berry-McNally

71'

H. Araujo← D. Markanday

79'

D. Wilson← E. Khouri

79'

M. Carson← D. Hume

82'

M. Jacobs← A. Dobra

89'

V. Campbell← D. Tanton

89'

L. Barrington← C. Vernam

90+3'

Will Grigg

90+1'

Matthew Carson

90+1'

C. Ainley← K. Green

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldGrimsby

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots14

4Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target7

5Off Target4

3Blocked3

9Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

347Total Passes332

276Accurate Passes261

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3