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Chesterfield vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
18:45
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
4/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 41SMH Group Stadium
Big match
42%
Chesterfield
model favours
42%24%34%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield42%
×Draw24%
Crawley Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.63
Crawley Town
1.44

Chesterfield creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.45
Crawley Town
1.51

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.37
Crawley Town
1.80

finishing

Chesterfield-0.05on par
Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
66%
Chesterfield or Crawley Town
76%
Draw or Crawley Town
58%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
21%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
80%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
48%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
22%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
76%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
42%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
55%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 10 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.45 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.63

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Chesterfield defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chesterfield scores more
42%
level
24%
Crawley Town scores more
34%

Chesterfield at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chesterfield sit 7, Crawley Town 22 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Crawley Town
Balanced
60%PossessionBiggest gap54%
78%Pass accuracy71%
11.9Shots12.7
1.32xG1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldCrawley Town

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Chesterfield
3
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 67%
1–12–21–22–03–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chesterfield host Crawley Town

April 13, 2027: Chesterfield take on Crawley Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chesterfield host Crawley Town at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.