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Chester vs Stoke City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chester
Chester
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Stoke City
Stoke City
N. Ennis 85'
E. Tezgel 45', 13'
7/11/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Deva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chester22%
×Draw23%
Stoke City55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chester
1.03
Stoke City
1.78

Stoke City creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chester
1.17
Stoke City
1.56

allows per match

Chester
2.00
Stoke City
0.89

finishing

Chester+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chester ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chester or draw
45%
Chester or Stoke City
77%
Draw or Stoke City
78%

Winning margin

Chester wins by 2+
8%
Stoke City wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Chester 1+ goals
64%
Chester 2+ goals
28%
Chester 3+ goals
9%
Stoke City 1+ goals
83%
Stoke City 2+ goals
53%
Stoke City 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Chester (draw refunded)
28%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chester at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chester attack 1.17 + Stoke City defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Stoke City attack 1.56 + Chester defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chester scores more
22%
level
23%
Stoke City scores more
55%

Stoke City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
E. Tezgel
45'
E. Tezgel
85'
N. Ennis
Chester
Stoke
C. McIntyre
Manager: C. McIntyre
A. Neil
Manager: A. Neil

Friendlies Clubs: Chester 0–3 Stoke City

Stoke City beat Chester 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2024.

Goals: E. Tezgel (13', 45'), N. Ennis (85').

The match was played at Deva Stadium in Chester, Cheshire.