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Chester vs Southport — League #50 2026

Chester
Chester
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Southport
Southport
D. Mottley-Henry 56'
D. Lloyd 90+5'
C. Sze 90'
3/21/2026League #50League #50 · North - 40Deva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chester52%
×Draw24%
Southport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chester
1.70
Southport
1.07

Chester creates 59% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chester
1.75
Southport
1.15

allows per match

Chester
1.00
Southport
1.65

finishing

Chester+0.00on par
Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chester ↓

Southport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chester or draw
76%
Chester or Southport
76%
Draw or Southport
48%

Winning margin

Chester wins by 2+
28%
Southport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chester 1+ goals
82%
Chester 2+ goals
51%
Chester 3+ goals
24%
Southport 1+ goals
66%
Southport 2+ goals
29%
Southport 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chester (draw refunded)
69%
Southport (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chester at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chester attack 1.75 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.70

Southport attack 1.15 + Chester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chester scores more
52%
level
24%
Southport scores more
24%

Chester at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
D. Mottley-Henry
90'
C. Sze
90+5'
D. Lloyd

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chester vs Southport

Southport beat Chester 2-1 in League #50 on March 21, 2026.

Goals: D. Mottley-Henry (56'), C. Sze (90'), D. Lloyd (90+5').

The match was played at Deva Stadium in Chester.