Chester 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

Chester

FT

0 – 2

Sheffield Wednesday

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lookers Vauxhall Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chester21%

×Draw26%

Sheffield Wednesday53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.50

Chester

0.83

Sheffield Wednesday

1.50

Sheffield Wednesday creates 81% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Chester

1.17

Sheffield Wednesday

1.00

allows per match

Chester

2.00

Sheffield Wednesday

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chester+0.00on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chester ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chester or draw

47%

Chester or Sheffield Wednesday

74%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

79%

Winning margin

Chester wins by 2+

7%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Chester 1+ goals

56%

Chester 2+ goals

20%

Chester 3+ goals

5%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

44%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chester (draw refunded)

28%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chester at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chester attack 1.17 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.00 + Chester defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chester scores more

21%

level

26%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

53%

Sheffield Wednesday at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff