Chester 3–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Chester

3 – 0

Fleetwood Town

J. Oyibo 71'

J. Hardy 54'

A. Dudley 6'

7/31/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lookers Vauxhall Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chester20%

×Draw23%

Fleetwood Town57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.83

Chester

1.00

Fleetwood Town

1.83

Fleetwood Town creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Chester

1.17

Fleetwood Town

1.67

allows per match

Chester

2.00

Fleetwood Town

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chester+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chester ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chester or draw

43%

Chester or Fleetwood Town

77%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

80%

Winning margin

Chester wins by 2+

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Chester 1+ goals

63%

Chester 2+ goals

26%

Chester 3+ goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

84%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

54%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Chester (draw refunded)

26%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chester at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chester attack 1.17 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fleetwood Town attack 1.67 + Chester defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chester scores more

20%

level

23%

Fleetwood Town scores more

57%

Fleetwood Town at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Dudley

54'

J. Hardy

59'

D. Stephenson← G. Waring

59'

J. Johnston← J. Oyibo

70'

J. Hardy← L. Clark

71'

J. Oyibo

76'

J. Morgan← L. Marsh-Hughes

76'

A. Dudley← B. Sloane

77'

R. Wallace← R. Wallace

77'

D. Edwards← D. Edwards

77'

C. Smith← C. Smith

82'

D. Weeks← H. Burke

82'

D. Livesey← Z. Clarke

82'

G. Glendon← D. Lowe

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff