Chester-le-Street Town W 1–2 Stoke City W

Chester-le-Street Town W

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City W

12/8/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundMoor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chester-le-Street Town W33%

×Draw21%

Stoke City W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chester-le-Street Town WExpected goals in this matchStoke City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.19

Chester-le-Street Town W

1.83

Stoke City W

2.19

Stoke City W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

3.20

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Chester-le-Street Town W

1.00

Stoke City W

1.17

allows per match

Chester-le-Street Town W

3.20

Stoke City W

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chester-le-Street Town W+0.00on par

Stoke City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chester-le-Street Town W ↓

Stoke City W →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Chester-le-Street Town W or draw

54%

Chester-le-Street Town W or Stoke City W

79%

Draw or Stoke City W

67%

Winning margin

Chester-le-Street Town W wins by 2+

17%

Stoke City W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Chester-le-Street Town W 1+ goals

84%

Chester-le-Street Town W 2+ goals

54%

Chester-le-Street Town W 3+ goals

28%

Stoke City W 1+ goals

89%

Stoke City W 2+ goals

64%

Stoke City W 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Chester-le-Street Town W (draw refunded)

42%

Stoke City W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chester-le-Street Town W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Stoke City W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chester-le-Street Town W attack 1.00 + Stoke City W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Stoke City W attack 1.17 + Chester-le-Street Town W defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chester-le-Street Town W scores more

33%

level

21%

Stoke City W scores more

46%

Stoke City W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stoke City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff