Chester-le-Street Town W 3–2 Spennymoor Town W

Chester-le-Street Town W

3 – 2

Spennymoor Town W

11/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundMoor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chester-le-Street Town W56%

×Draw18%

Spennymoor Town W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chester-le-Street Town WExpected goals in this matchSpennymoor Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

2.10

Chester-le-Street Town W

3.00

Spennymoor Town W

2.10

Chester-le-Street Town W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

3.20

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Chester-le-Street Town W

1.00

Spennymoor Town W

1.00

allows per match

Chester-le-Street Town W

3.20

Spennymoor Town W

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chester-le-Street Town W+0.00on par

Spennymoor Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chester-le-Street Town W ↓

Spennymoor Town W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Chester-le-Street Town W or draw

73%

Chester-le-Street Town W or Spennymoor Town W

82%

Draw or Spennymoor Town W

44%

Winning margin

Chester-le-Street Town W wins by 2+

37%

Spennymoor Town W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chester-le-Street Town W 1+ goals

95%

Chester-le-Street Town W 2+ goals

79%

Chester-le-Street Town W 3+ goals

56%

Spennymoor Town W 1+ goals

88%

Spennymoor Town W 2+ goals

62%

Spennymoor Town W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Chester-le-Street Town W (draw refunded)

67%

Spennymoor Town W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chester-le-Street Town W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Spennymoor Town W away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chester-le-Street Town W attack 1.00 + Spennymoor Town W defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Spennymoor Town W attack 1.00 + Chester-le-Street Town W defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chester-le-Street Town W scores more

56%

level

18%

Spennymoor Town W scores more

27%

Chester-le-Street Town W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chester-le-Street Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff