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Chester-le-Street Town W vs Derby County W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Chester-le-Street Town W
Chester-le-Street Town W
FT
1 – 5
Derby County W
Derby County W
12/10/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundMoor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chester-le-Street Town W5%
×Draw9%
Derby County W86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chester-le-Street Town W
1.00
Derby County W
3.94

Derby County W creates 294% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chester-le-Street Town W
1.00
Derby County W
4.67

allows per match

Chester-le-Street Town W
3.20
Derby County W
1.00

finishing

Chester-le-Street Town W+0.00on par
Derby County W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chester-le-Street Town W ↓

Derby County W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Chester-le-Street Town W or draw
14%
Chester-le-Street Town W or Derby County W
91%
Draw or Derby County W
95%

Winning margin

Chester-le-Street Town W wins by 2+
2%
Derby County W wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

Chester-le-Street Town W 1+ goals
63%
Chester-le-Street Town W 2+ goals
26%
Chester-le-Street Town W 3+ goals
8%
Derby County W 1+ goals
98%
Derby County W 2+ goals
89%
Derby County W 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Chester-le-Street Town W (draw refunded)
6%
Derby County W (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chester-le-Street Town W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Derby County W away — creates 4.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chester-le-Street Town W attack 1.00 + Derby County W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Derby County W attack 4.67 + Chester-le-Street Town W defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Chester-le-Street Town W scores more
5%
level
9%
Derby County W scores more
86%

Derby County W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Derby County W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chester-le-Street Town W vs Derby County W

Derby County W beat Chester-le-Street Town W 5-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Moor Park in Chester-le-Street, County Durham.