Cheshunt 2–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Cheshunt

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leyton Orient

Unknown 90+1'

A. Vasiliou 26'

Unknown 51'

7/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cheshunt39%

×Draw23%

Leyton Orient38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheshuntExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.67

Cheshunt

1.69

Leyton Orient

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Cheshunt

2.00

Leyton Orient

2.00

allows per match

Cheshunt

1.33

Leyton Orient

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheshunt+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheshunt ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Cheshunt or draw

62%

Cheshunt or Leyton Orient

77%

Draw or Leyton Orient

61%

Winning margin

Cheshunt wins by 2+

20%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cheshunt 1+ goals

82%

Cheshunt 2+ goals

50%

Cheshunt 3+ goals

24%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

81%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

50%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Cheshunt (draw refunded)

51%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheshunt at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheshunt attack 2.00 + Leyton Orient defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Leyton Orient attack 2.00 + Cheshunt defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cheshunt scores more

39%

level

23%

Leyton Orient scores more

38%

Cheshunt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cheshunt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Vasiliou

51'

90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff