Chesham United W 0–1 Southampton W: Result & Stats

Chesham United W

0 – 1

Southampton W

11/10/2019

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chesham United W21%

×Draw18%

Southampton W61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chesham United WExpected goals in this matchSouthampton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.78

Chesham United W

1.61

Southampton W

2.78

Southampton W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.33

creates per match

2.56

3.00

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Chesham United W

2.33

Southampton W

2.56

allows per match

Chesham United W

3.00

Southampton W

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chesham United W+0.00on par

Southampton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesham United W ↓

Southampton W →

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Chesham United W or draw

39%

Chesham United W or Southampton W

82%

Draw or Southampton W

79%

Winning margin

Chesham United W wins by 2+

Southampton W wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Chesham United W 1+ goals

80%

Chesham United W 2+ goals

48%

Chesham United W 3+ goals

22%

Southampton W 1+ goals

94%

Southampton W 2+ goals

76%

Southampton W 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Chesham United W (draw refunded)

26%

Southampton W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chesham United W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Southampton W away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chesham United W attack 2.33 + Southampton W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Southampton W attack 2.56 + Chesham United W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chesham United W scores more

21%

level

18%

Southampton W scores more

61%

Southampton W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Southampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff