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Chesham United W vs Cambridge United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Chesham United W
Chesham United W
FT
3 – 2
Cambridge United W
Cambridge United W
11/14/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chesham United W40%
×Draw20%
Cambridge United W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesham United W
2.17
Cambridge United W
2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chesham United W
2.33
Cambridge United W
1.33

allows per match

Chesham United W
3.00
Cambridge United W
2.00

finishing

Chesham United W+0.00on par
Cambridge United W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesham United W ↓

Cambridge United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Chesham United W or draw
60%
Chesham United W or Cambridge United W
80%
Draw or Cambridge United W
60%

Winning margin

Chesham United W wins by 2+
22%
Cambridge United W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Chesham United W 1+ goals
89%
Chesham United W 2+ goals
64%
Chesham United W 3+ goals
36%
Cambridge United W 1+ goals
89%
Cambridge United W 2+ goals
64%
Cambridge United W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Chesham United W (draw refunded)
50%
Cambridge United W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesham United W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Cambridge United W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesham United W attack 2.33 + Cambridge United W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Cambridge United W attack 1.33 + Chesham United W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chesham United W scores more
40%
level
20%
Cambridge United W scores more
40%

Chesham United W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chesham United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chesham United W vs Cambridge United W

Chesham United W beat Cambridge United W 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at The Meadow in Chesham, Buckinghamshire.