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Chertanovo U20 vs FShM U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Chertanovo U20
Chertanovo U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FShM U19
FShM U19
10/27/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 15Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chertanovo U2056%
×Draw22%
FShM U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo U20
2.00
FShM U19
1.18

Chertanovo U20 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chertanovo U20
1.79
FShM U19
0.67

allows per match

Chertanovo U20
1.68
FShM U19
2.22

finishing

Chertanovo U20+0.00on par
FShM U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo U20 ↓

FShM U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chertanovo U20 or draw
78%
Chertanovo U20 or FShM U19
78%
Draw or FShM U19
44%

Winning margin

Chertanovo U20 wins by 2+
33%
FShM U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chertanovo U20 1+ goals
86%
Chertanovo U20 2+ goals
59%
Chertanovo U20 3+ goals
32%
FShM U19 1+ goals
69%
FShM U19 2+ goals
33%
FShM U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo U20 (draw refunded)
72%
FShM U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo U20 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.68 · 73 matches

FShM U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo U20 attack 1.79 + FShM U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.00

FShM U19 attack 0.67 + Chertanovo U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chertanovo U20 scores more
56%
level
22%
FShM U19 scores more
22%

Chertanovo U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chertanovo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Chertanovo U20 1–0 FShM U19

Chertanovo U20 beat FShM U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.