Chertanovo Moscow 4–0 Zenit 2: Result & Stats

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Zenit 2

M. Glushenkov 47', 44'

A. Zinkovskiy 26'

V. Sarveli 1'

11/4/2018

First League · Round 20Stadion Avangard (Domodedovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow45%

×Draw27%

Zenit 228%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchZenit 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.04

Chertanovo Moscow

1.38

Zenit 2

1.04

Chertanovo Moscow creates 33% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 33 away

1.37

creates per match

0.76

1.33

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.37

Zenit 2

0.76

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.33

Zenit 2

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Zenit 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

72%

Chertanovo Moscow or Zenit 2

73%

Draw or Zenit 2

55%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

21%

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

75%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

40%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Zenit 2 1+ goals

65%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

28%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

61%

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.37 + Zenit 2 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zenit 2 attack 0.76 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

45%

level

27%

Zenit 2 scores more

28%

Chertanovo Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

V. Sarveli

26'

A. Zinkovskiy

30'

D. Pletnev← I. Tarasov

44'

M. Glushenkov

46'

S. Ivanov← K. Kaplenko

47'

M. Glushenkov

69'

D. Tyumentsev← V. Sarveli

69'

D. Penchikov← I. Vorobyov

70'

D. Tsypchenko← Y. Gorshkov

73'

D. Prutsev← V. Parshikov

76'

S. Bugriev← N. Prudnikov

81'

D. Molchanov← A. Zinkovskiy

Chertanovo

Zenit

70

3

88

96

80

97

38

55

▼

Kaplenko

32

▼

Prudnikov

82

▼

Tarasov

84

▼

1

13

6

2

▼

Parshikov

8

Vityugov

15

⚽2

Glushenko

23

▼

Gorshkov

26

Umiarov

9

⚽

▼

Sarveli

17

⚽

▼

Zinkovski

24

Kolesnich

Manager: I. Osinkin

69'▲D. Tyumentsev←▼V. Sarveli

70'▲D. Tsypchenko←▼Y. Gorshkov

73'▲D. Prutsev←▼V. Parshikov

81'▲D. Molchanov←▼A. Zinkovskiy

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

7Tyumentsev91Tsypchenko25Prutsev20Molchanov5Karakoz55Radionov63Nikitenkov

Manager: V. Radimov

30'▲D. Pletnev←▼I. Tarasov

46'▲S. Ivanov←▼K. Kaplenko

69'▲D. Penchikov←▼I. Vorobyov

76'▲S. Bugriev←▼N. Prudnikov

Zenit 2 substitutes

49Pletnev74Ivanov79Penchikov59Bugriev54Kakkoev72Sinyak93Kizeev