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Chertanovo Moscow vs Veles — First League 2026

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Veles
Veles
4/11/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 36Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow42%
×Draw27%
Veles31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.35
Veles
1.13

Chertanovo Moscow creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 58 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.36
Veles
0.95

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.30
Veles
1.34

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
69%
Chertanovo Moscow or Veles
73%
Draw or Veles
58%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
19%
Veles wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
74%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
39%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
15%
Veles 1+ goals
68%
Veles 2+ goals
31%
Veles 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
57%
Veles (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Veles attack 0.95 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
42%
level
27%
Veles scores more
31%

Chertanovo Moscow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chertanovo Moscow 2–4 Veles

Veles beat Chertanovo Moscow 4-2 in First League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Moscow.