Chertanovo Moscow 0–0 Rodina Moskva II

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rodina Moskva II

9/23/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 11Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow50%

×Draw27%

Rodina Moskva II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.90

Chertanovo Moscow

1.44

Rodina Moskva II

0.90

Chertanovo Moscow creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

1.67

creates per match

1.24

0.56

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.67

Rodina Moskva II

1.24

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

0.56

Rodina Moskva II

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Rodina Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

76%

Chertanovo Moscow or Rodina Moskva II

73%

Draw or Rodina Moskva II

50%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

25%

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

76%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

42%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

18%

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

59%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

23%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

68%

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.67 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

50%

level

27%

Rodina Moskva II scores more

24%

Chertanovo Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff