Chertanovo Moscow 2–6 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 1

PFC Sochi

9/30/2018

First League · Round 14Stadion Avangard (Domodedovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow33%

×Draw26%

PFC Sochi41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.38

Chertanovo Moscow

1.22

PFC Sochi

1.38

PFC Sochi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 38 away

1.36

creates per match

1.45

1.30

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.36

PFC Sochi

1.45

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.30

PFC Sochi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

59%

Chertanovo Moscow or PFC Sochi

74%

Draw or PFC Sochi

67%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

14%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

70%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

34%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

12%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

75%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

40%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

45%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

33%

level

26%

PFC Sochi scores more

41%

PFC Sochi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff