Chertanovo Moscow 1–0 Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

9/30/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow42%

×Draw26%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchOlimp-Dolgoprudny II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.26

Chertanovo Moscow

1.46

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.26

Chertanovo Moscow creates 16% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 14 away

1.55

creates per match

1.29

1.23

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.29

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.23

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

67%

Chertanovo Moscow or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

74%

Draw or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

58%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

20%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

77%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

43%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

18%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals

72%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals

36%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

56%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.29 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

42%

level

26%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more

33%

Chertanovo Moscow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff