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Chertanovo Moscow vs Novosibirsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
10/21/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 15Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow48%
×Draw30%
Novosibirsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.23
Novosibirsk
0.73

Chertanovo Moscow creates 68% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.67
Novosibirsk
0.89

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
0.56
Novosibirsk
0.78

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
78%
Chertanovo Moscow or Novosibirsk
70%
Draw or Novosibirsk
52%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
22%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
71%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
35%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
13%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
52%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
17%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
69%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.67 + Novosibirsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Novosibirsk attack 0.89 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
48%
level
30%
Novosibirsk scores more
22%

Chertanovo Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Novosibirsk

Chertanovo Moscow and Novosibirsk drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.