Chertanovo Moscow 3–0 Metallurg Lipetsk

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Metallurg Lipetsk

8/5/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 4Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow54%

×Draw25%

Metallurg Lipetsk20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.86

Chertanovo Moscow

1.58

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.86

Chertanovo Moscow creates 84% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.67

creates per match

1.17

0.56

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.67

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.17

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

0.56

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

80%

Chertanovo Moscow or Metallurg Lipetsk

75%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

46%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

29%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

79%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

47%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

21%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

58%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

21%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

73%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.67 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

54%

level

25%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

20%

Chertanovo Moscow at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff