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Chertanovo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov — First League 2018

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
9/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow29%
×Draw26%
Krylya Sovetov44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.11
Krylya Sovetov
1.43

Krylya Sovetov creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 22 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.36
Krylya Sovetov
1.55

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.30
Krylya Sovetov
0.86

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
56%
Chertanovo Moscow or Krylya Sovetov
74%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
71%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
11%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
67%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
30%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
10%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
76%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
42%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
40%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
29%
level
26%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
44%

Krylya Sovetov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Chertanovo Moscow 1-0 in First League on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Moscow.