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Chertanovo Moscow vs Khimki — First League 2018

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
8/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow35%
×Draw26%
Khimki38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.27
Khimki
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.36
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.30
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
62%
Chertanovo Moscow or Khimki
74%
Draw or Khimki
65%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
15%
Khimki wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
72%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
36%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
14%
Khimki 1+ goals
74%
Khimki 2+ goals
39%
Khimki 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
48%
Khimki (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Khimki attack 1.39 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
35%
level
26%
Khimki scores more
38%

Khimki at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Khimki

Chertanovo Moscow and Khimki drew 0-0 in First League on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.