Chertanovo Moscow 2–1 Irkutsk: Result & Stats

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Irkutsk

M. Urvantsev 52'

V. Nafikov 20'

V. Bragin 78'

5/12/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow43%

×Draw26%

Irkutsk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchIrkutsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.17

Chertanovo Moscow

1.44

Irkutsk

1.17

Chertanovo Moscow creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 44 away

1.55

creates per match

1.11

1.23

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

Irkutsk

1.11

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.23

Irkutsk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Irkutsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

69%

Chertanovo Moscow or Irkutsk

74%

Draw or Irkutsk

57%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

21%

Irkutsk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

76%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

42%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

18%

Irkutsk 1+ goals

69%

Irkutsk 2+ goals

33%

Irkutsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

58%

Irkutsk (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Irkutsk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Irkutsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Irkutsk attack 1.11 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

43%

level

26%

Irkutsk scores more

31%

Chertanovo Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

V. Nafikov

46'

V. Bragin← I. Yakovlev

52'

M. Urvantsev

70'

V. Agafontsev← A. Frantsuzov

70'

M. Belkovskiy← M. Urvantsev

75'

Z. Svetov← A. Babeshko

75'

E. Perevoznikov← V. Bogdanov

78'

V. Bragin

87'

E. Bogdanov← E. Perevoznikov

90+3'

G. Miroshnichenko← V. Nafikov

90+3'

N. Suleymanov← S. Semenov

Chertanovo

Irkutsk

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Urvantsev

Manager: S. Chikishev

70'▲V. Agafontsev←▼A. Frantsuzov

70'▲M. Belkovskiy←▼M. Urvantsev

75'▲Z. Svetov←▼A. Babeshko

90+3'▲G. Miroshnichenko←▼V. Nafikov

90+3'▲N. Suleymanov←▼S. Semenov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

AgafontsevBelkovskiySvetovMiroshnichenkoSuleymanov

Manager: K. Dzutsev

46'▲V. Bragin←▼I. Yakovlev

75'▲E. Perevoznikov←▼V. Bogdanov

87'▲E. Bogdanov←▼E. Perevoznikov

Irkutsk substitutes

BraginPerevoznikovBogdanov