Chertanovo Moscow 5–0 Forte Taganrog

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Forte Taganrog

9/1/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 8Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow62%

×Draw22%

Forte Taganrog15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchForte Taganrog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.78

Chertanovo Moscow

1.83

Forte Taganrog

0.78

Chertanovo Moscow creates 135% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

0.56

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.67

Forte Taganrog

1.00

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

0.56

Forte Taganrog

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Forte Taganrog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

85%

Chertanovo Moscow or Forte Taganrog

78%

Draw or Forte Taganrog

38%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

37%

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

84%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

54%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

28%

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

54%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

18%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

80%

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.67 + Forte Taganrog defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Forte Taganrog attack 1.00 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

62%

level

22%

Forte Taganrog scores more

15%

Chertanovo Moscow at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff