Chertanovo Moscow 3–1 Cherepovets: Result & Stats

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cherepovets

A. Khomyakov 87'

A. Pomalyuk 83'

M. Urvantsev 36'

K. Kulkov 53' (pen)

4/20/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Chertanovo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow48%

×Draw24%

Cherepovets27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchCherepovets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.19

Chertanovo Moscow

1.66

Cherepovets

1.19

Chertanovo Moscow creates 39% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 21 away

1.55

creates per match

1.14

1.23

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

Cherepovets

1.14

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.23

Cherepovets

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Cherepovets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Cherepovets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

73%

Chertanovo Moscow or Cherepovets

76%

Draw or Cherepovets

52%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

25%

Cherepovets wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

81%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

49%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

23%

Cherepovets 1+ goals

70%

Cherepovets 2+ goals

33%

Cherepovets 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

64%

Cherepovets (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Cherepovets away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Cherepovets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cherepovets attack 1.14 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

48%

level

24%

Cherepovets scores more

27%

Chertanovo Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

M. Urvantsev

46'

N. Pichugin← O. Krinkin

46'

A. Balashov← M. Andreev

53'

K. KulkovPenalty

61'

S. Semenov← G. Borisov

61'

A. Pomalyuk← Z. Svetov

83'

A. Pomalyuk

85'

V. Korbut← M. Yakimenko

86'

S. Kunavin← K. Kulkov

87'

A. Khomyakov

90'

V. Agafontsev← I. Polyakov

90'

M. Yusupov← V. Semenov

Chertanovo

Cherepovets

1

4

27

33

15

8

▼

Krinkin

77

▼

47

17

9

11

⚽

▼

31

13

21

45

2

▼

Polyakov

42

⚽

Khomyakov

7

▼

Yakimenko

10

▼

Semenov

11

▼

Svetov

9

⚽

Urvantsev

97

▼

Borisov

Manager: S. Chikishev

61'▲S. Semenov←▼G. Borisov

61'▲A. Pomalyuk←▼Z. Svetov

85'▲V. Korbut←▼M. Yakimenko

90'▲V. Agafontsev←▼I. Polyakov

90'▲M. Yusupov←▼V. Semenov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

30Osipov4Svetnikov44Rusyaev18Korunov15Agafontsev27Mikadze25Yusupov17Semenov26Korbut91Pomalyuk

Manager: D. Chernukhin

46'▲N. Pichugin←▼O. Krinkin

46'▲A. Balashov←▼M. Andreev

86'▲S. Kunavin←▼K. Kulkov

Cherepovets substitutes

13Zykov96Maltsev2Karamyshev5Pichugin20Kunavin21Popov10Balashov24Aleksandrov

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets

Chertanovo Moscow beat Cherepovets 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 20, 2025.

Goals: M. Urvantsev (36'), K. Kulkov (53' pen), A. Pomalyuk (83'), A. Khomyakov (87').

The match was played at Chertanovo Arena in Moscow.

Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets