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Chertanovo Moscow vs Baltika — First League 2026

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Baltika
Baltika
4/7/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow33%
×Draw27%
Baltika40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.18
Baltika
1.32

Baltika creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 109 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.36
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.30
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
60%
Chertanovo Moscow or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
67%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
14%
Baltika wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
69%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
33%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
12%
Baltika 1+ goals
73%
Baltika 2+ goals
38%
Baltika 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
45%
Baltika (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Baltika attack 1.34 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
33%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
40%

Baltika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Baltika

Baltika beat Chertanovo Moscow 2-1 in First League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Moscow.