Chertanovo Moscow 3–1 Baltika: Result & Stats

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Baltika

M. Mayrovich 89'

V. Sarveli 78'

A. Zinkovskiy 73' (pen)

N. Dzalamidze 34'

7/29/2018

First League · Round 3Stadion Avangard (Domodedovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow34%

×Draw27%

Baltika39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.31

Chertanovo Moscow

1.21

Baltika

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 113 away

1.37

creates per match

1.30

1.33

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.37

Baltika

1.30

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.33

Baltika

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

61%

Chertanovo Moscow or Baltika

73%

Draw or Baltika

66%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

14%

Baltika wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

70%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

34%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Baltika 1+ goals

73%

Baltika 2+ goals

38%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

47%

Baltika (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.37 + Baltika defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Baltika attack 1.30 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

34%

level

27%

Baltika scores more

39%

Baltika at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

S. Takazov← A. Shavaev

34'

N. Dzalamidze

36'

M. Mayrovich← A. Soldatenkov

57'

M. Tishkin← N. Dzalamidze

73'

A. ZinkovskiyPenalty

75'

M. Grigorjev← A. Pugin

78'

V. Sarveli

88'

K. Kolesnichenko← V. Sarveli

89'

M. Mayrovich

90+1'

D. Tyumentsev← R. Ezhov

90+1'

D. Molchanov← A. Zinkovskiy

Chertanovo

Baltika

32

2

25

3

33

4

11

10

⚽

▼

Dzalamidz

17

▼

Pugin

19

▼

22

1

13

6

▼

2

4

8

23

26

11

▼

Ezhov

9

⚽

▼

Sarveli

17

⚽

▼

Zinkovski

Manager: I. Osinkin

36'▲M. Mayrovich←▼A. Soldatenkov

88'▲K. Kolesnichenko←▼V. Sarveli

90+1'▲D. Tyumentsev←▼R. Ezhov

90+1'▲D. Molchanov←▼A. Zinkovskiy

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

18Mayrovich24Kolesnichenko7Tyumentsev20Molchanov31Zavarukhin44Mikhaylov55Radionov77Radostev5Karakoz21Velikorodnyy

Manager: V. Nepomnyashchiy

29'▲S. Takazov←▼A. Shavaev

57'▲M. Tishkin←▼N. Dzalamidze

75'▲M. Grigorjev←▼A. Pugin

Baltika substitutes

30Takazov44Tishkin9Grigorjev1Lantratov23Kryuchkov28Magal13Shabalin

First League: Chertanovo Moscow 3–1 Baltika

Chertanovo Moscow beat Baltika 3-1 in First League on July 29, 2018.

Goals: N. Dzalamidze (34'), A. Zinkovskiy (73' pen), V. Sarveli (78'), M. Mayrovich (89').

The match was played at Stadion Avangard (Domodedovo).

Chertanovo Moscow vs Baltika — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Chertanovo Moscow 3–1 Baltika