Chernomorets 1–1 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats

Chernomorets

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Volgar Astrakhan

10/1/2023

First League · Round 12Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chernomorets42%

×Draw28%

Volgar Astrakhan30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChernomoretsExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.01

Chernomorets

1.25

Volgar Astrakhan

1.01

Chernomorets creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

1.27

creates per match

0.93

1.08

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Chernomorets

1.27

Volgar Astrakhan

0.93

allows per match

Chernomorets

1.08

Volgar Astrakhan

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw

70%

Chernomorets or Volgar Astrakhan

72%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

58%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+

19%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals

71%

Chernomorets 2+ goals

36%

Chernomorets 3+ goals

13%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

64%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

27%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)

58%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chernomorets scores more

42%

level

28%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

30%

Chernomorets at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff