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Chernomorets vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
3/1/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Centralnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chernomorets36%
×Draw28%
Torpedo Moskva36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.16
Torpedo Moskva
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 104 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
1.27
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Chernomorets
1.08
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
64%
Chernomorets or Torpedo Moskva
72%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
64%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
15%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
69%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
32%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
68%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
50%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chernomorets scores more
36%
level
28%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
36%

Chernomorets at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chernomorets 0–2 Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Chernomorets 2-0 in First League on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Centralnyy in Novorossiysk.