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Chernomorets vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
3/7/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Centralnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chernomorets43%
×Draw27%
Ska-khabarovsk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.36
Ska-khabarovsk
1.08

Chernomorets creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 142 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
1.27
Ska-khabarovsk
1.07

allows per match

Chernomorets
1.08
Ska-khabarovsk
1.46

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
70%
Chernomorets or Ska-khabarovsk
73%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
57%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
20%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
74%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
39%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
16%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
66%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
29%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
59%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.07 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chernomorets scores more
43%
level
27%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
30%

Chernomorets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernomorets vs Ska-khabarovsk

Chernomorets beat Ska-khabarovsk 3-0 in First League on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Centralnyy in Novorossiysk.