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Chernomorets vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11/28/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Centralnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chernomorets45%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.04

Chernomorets creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 123 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
1.27
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Chernomorets
1.08
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
72%
Chernomorets or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
55%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
21%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
75%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
40%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
65%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
61%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chernomorets scores more
45%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
28%

Chernomorets at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernomorets vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Chernomorets beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-1 in First League on November 28, 2025.

The match was played at Centralnyy in Novorossiysk.