Chernomorets 2–2 Rodina Moskva: Result & Stats

Chernomorets

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rodina Moskva

9/1/2024

First League · Round 8Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chernomorets34%

×Draw28%

Rodina Moskva38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChernomoretsExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.20

Chernomorets

1.12

Rodina Moskva

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.27

creates per match

1.32

1.08

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Chernomorets

1.27

Rodina Moskva

1.32

allows per match

Chernomorets

1.08

Rodina Moskva

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Rodina Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw

62%

Chernomorets or Rodina Moskva

72%

Draw or Rodina Moskva

66%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+

14%

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals

67%

Chernomorets 2+ goals

31%

Chernomorets 3+ goals

10%

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

70%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

34%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)

47%

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chernomorets scores more

34%

level

28%

Rodina Moskva scores more

38%

Rodina Moskva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff