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Chernomorets vs Krasnodar III — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
8/15/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chernomorets62%
×Draw21%
Krasnodar III17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.95
Krasnodar III
0.90

Chernomorets creates 117% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
2.21
Krasnodar III
1.13

allows per match

Chernomorets
0.66
Krasnodar III
1.69

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Krasnodar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
83%
Chernomorets or Krasnodar III
79%
Draw or Krasnodar III
38%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
37%
Krasnodar III wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
86%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
58%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
31%
Krasnodar III 1+ goals
59%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
23%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
79%
Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 2.21 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Chernomorets defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chernomorets scores more
62%
level
21%
Krasnodar III scores more
17%

Chernomorets at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Chernomorets 1–0 Krasnodar III

Chernomorets beat Krasnodar III 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Novorossiysk.