Chernomorets 2–1 FC Sochi: Result & Stats

Chernomorets

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Sochi

A. Antonov 76'

P. Gorelov 42'

P. Maslov 35'

5/24/2025

First League · Round 34Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Chernomorets34%

×Draw27%

FC Sochi39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChernomoretsExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.27

Chernomorets

1.18

FC Sochi

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

1.27

creates per match

1.45

1.08

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Chernomorets

1.27

FC Sochi

1.45

allows per match

Chernomorets

1.08

FC Sochi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

FC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw

61%

Chernomorets or FC Sochi

73%

Draw or FC Sochi

66%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+

14%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals

69%

Chernomorets 2+ goals

33%

Chernomorets 3+ goals

12%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

72%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

36%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)

47%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chernomorets scores more

34%

level

27%

FC Sochi scores more

39%

FC Sochi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

38'

42'

46'

46'

V. Masternoy← Z. Tarba

57'

D. Martovoy← K. Nikitin

57'

I. Saavedra← R. Shagiakhmetov

57'

K. Zaika← R. Magal

57'

V. Pisarskiy← A. Balkizov

65'

A. Antonov← M. Uridia

71'

R. Pasevich← M. Kaynov

76'

A. Antonov

77'

V. Krotov← G. Guzina

86'

Z. Yusupov← E. Ivanov

Statistics

ChernomoretsFC

Discipline

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0