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Chernomorets vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
4/27/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chernomorets51%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Makhachkala23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.57
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.97

Chernomorets creates 62% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 32 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
2.21
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.28

allows per match

Chernomorets
0.66
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.94

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
77%
Chernomorets or Dinamo Makhachkala
75%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
49%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
27%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
79%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
46%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
62%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
25%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
69%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 2.21 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.28 + Chernomorets defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chernomorets scores more
51%
level
25%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
23%

Chernomorets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Chernomorets 3–0 Dinamo Makhachkala

Chernomorets beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on April 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Novorossiysk.