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Chernomorets vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
8/3/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Centralnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chernomorets41%
×Draw29%
Arsenal Tula31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.21
Arsenal Tula
1.01

Chernomorets creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
1.27
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

Chernomorets
1.08
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
69%
Chernomorets or Arsenal Tula
71%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
59%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
18%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
70%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
34%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
12%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
64%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
27%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
57%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chernomorets scores more
41%
level
29%
Arsenal Tula scores more
31%

Chernomorets at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernomorets vs Arsenal Tula

Arsenal Tula beat Chernomorets 2-1 in First League on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Centralnyy in Novorossiysk.