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Chernomorets vs Anzhi — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anzhi
Anzhi
8/21/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chernomorets53%
×Draw23%
Anzhi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.79
Anzhi
1.11

Chernomorets creates 61% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 32 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
2.21
Anzhi
1.56

allows per match

Chernomorets
0.66
Anzhi
1.38

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Anzhi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
76%
Chernomorets or Anzhi
77%
Draw or Anzhi
47%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
30%
Anzhi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
83%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
53%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
26%
Anzhi 1+ goals
67%
Anzhi 2+ goals
30%
Anzhi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
69%
Anzhi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Anzhi away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 2.21 + Anzhi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.79

Anzhi attack 1.56 + Chernomorets defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chernomorets scores more
53%
level
23%
Anzhi scores more
24%

Chernomorets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernomorets vs Anzhi

Chernomorets beat Anzhi 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Novorossiysk.