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Chernomorets Balchik vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
4/6/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik42%
×Draw29%
Yantra 201929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
1.23
Yantra 2019
0.96

Chernomorets Balchik creates 28% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 100 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
1.24
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.98
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
71%
Chernomorets Balchik or Yantra 2019
71%
Draw or Yantra 2019
58%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
19%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
71%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
35%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
13%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
62%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
25%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
60%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 1.24 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
42%
level
29%
Yantra 2019 scores more
29%

Chernomorets Balchik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Chernomorets Balchik 2–1 Yantra 2019

Chernomorets Balchik beat Yantra 2019 2-1 in Second League on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Balchik.