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Chernomorets Balchik vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
FT
5 – 1
Topoli
Topoli
3/31/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik75%
×Draw16%
Topoli9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
2.38
Topoli
0.70

Chernomorets Balchik creates 240% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
2.66
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.55
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
91%
Chernomorets Balchik or Topoli
84%
Draw or Topoli
25%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
51%
Topoli wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
91%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
68%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
42%
Topoli 1+ goals
50%
Topoli 2+ goals
16%
Topoli 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
89%
Topoli (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.55 · 71 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.66 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.38

Topoli attack 0.85 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
75%
level
16%
Topoli scores more
9%

Chernomorets Balchik at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Chernomorets Balchik 5–1 Topoli

Chernomorets Balchik beat Topoli 5-1 in Third League - Northeast on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Balchik.