Chernomorets Balchik 1–1 Montana: Result & Stats

Chernomorets Balchik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montana

12/10/2023

Second League · Round 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik33%

×Draw30%

Montana37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets BalchikExpected goals in this matchMontana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.10

Chernomorets Balchik

1.03

Montana

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 96 away

1.21

creates per match

1.22

0.98

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik

1.21

Montana

1.22

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik

0.98

Montana

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Montana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw

63%

Chernomorets Balchik or Montana

70%

Draw or Montana

67%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

13%

Montana wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

64%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

28%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

9%

Montana 1+ goals

67%

Montana 2+ goals

30%

Montana 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

47%

Montana (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 1.21 + Montana defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Montana attack 1.22 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

33%

level

30%

Montana scores more

37%

Montana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff