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Chernomorets Balchik vs Kubrat — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
CANC
13:00
Kubrat
Kubrat
3/27/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik85%
×Draw10%
Kubrat5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
3.10
Kubrat
0.65

Chernomorets Balchik creates 377% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 46 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
2.66
Kubrat
0.74

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.55
Kubrat
3.54

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Kubrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
95%
Chernomorets Balchik or Kubrat
90%
Draw or Kubrat
15%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
66%
Kubrat wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
95%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
81%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
58%
Kubrat 1+ goals
48%
Kubrat 2+ goals
14%
Kubrat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
94%
Kubrat (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.55 · 71 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.66 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.10

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
85%
level
10%
Kubrat scores more
5%

Chernomorets Balchik at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chernomorets Balchik vs Kubrat — Match Preview

Chernomorets Balchik face Kubrat on March 27, 2021 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chernomorets Balchik host Kubrat at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.