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Chernomorets Balchik vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
FT
4 – 0
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
2/26/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik81%
×Draw13%
Dunav ot Ruse II6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
2.75
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.65

Chernomorets Balchik creates 323% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 27 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
2.66
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.55
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
94%
Chernomorets Balchik or Dunav ot Ruse II
87%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
19%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
60%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
93%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
75%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
51%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
48%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
14%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
93%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.55 · 71 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.66 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.75

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
81%
level
13%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
6%

Chernomorets Balchik at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Chernomorets Balchik 4–0 Dunav ot Ruse II

Chernomorets Balchik beat Dunav ot Ruse II 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Balchik.