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Chernomorets Balchik vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
CANC
14:00
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
9/12/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik89%
×Draw9%
Benkovski Byala3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
3.13
Benkovski Byala
0.43

Chernomorets Balchik creates 628% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 20 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
2.66
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.55
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
97%
Chernomorets Balchik or Benkovski Byala
91%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
11%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
72%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
95%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
81%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
59%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
35%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
7%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
97%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.55 · 71 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.66 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.13

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
89%
level
9%
Benkovski Byala scores more
3%

Chernomorets Balchik at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chernomorets Balchik face Benkovski Byala (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Chernomorets Balchik hosting Benkovski Byala. Match starts September 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chernomorets Balchik host Benkovski Byala at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.