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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FT
3 – 0
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
3/9/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 20Stadion Chernomorets (Burgas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas77%
×Draw15%
Svilengrad8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.44
Svilengrad
0.62

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 294% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 26 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.75
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.55
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
92%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Svilengrad
85%
Draw or Svilengrad
23%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
54%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
91%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
70%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
43%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
46%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
13%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
91%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.55 · 99 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 2.75 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.44

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
77%
level
15%
Svilengrad scores more
8%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3–0 Svilengrad

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas beat Svilengrad 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Chernomorets (Burgas).