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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Septemvri Sofia — Second League 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
3/9/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Efbet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas33%
×Draw28%
Septemvri Sofia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.10
Septemvri Sofia
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 60 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Septemvri Sofia
1.57

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.82
Septemvri Sofia
1.00

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
62%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Septemvri Sofia
72%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
67%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
13%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
67%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
30%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
10%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
70%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
34%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
47%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.21 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.57 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
33%
level
28%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
38%

Septemvri Sofia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Septemvri Sofia

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Septemvri Sofia drew 1-1 in Second League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Efbet Arena in Burgas.